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US–Swiss Growth Outlook 2025–26: Trust, Access, Expansion

  • Writer: Christophe Gisler
    Christophe Gisler
  • Oct 7
  • 4 min read

Updated: Oct 22

Switzerland’s economic landscape in 2025 is defined by stability, opportunity, and precision.


And the United States sits at the center of that momentum.

From a new cross-border finance framework to sector-specific AI regulation and an expanding BPO industry, the US–Swiss corridor is positioned for accelerated growth, anchored in transparency, innovation, and long-term trust.



The Growth Story: A Partnership Built on Strength

Despite short-term trade friction, bilateral trade between the US and Switzerland has quadrupled in two decades, making the US Switzerland’s largest export destination and a top source of investment.

Swiss exports, from pharmaceuticals and machinery to precision goods and watches, depend on the US market. Meanwhile, Switzerland ranks among the top global investors in the United States, reinforcing a two-way growth model based on capital, talent, and technology exchange.

Even amid proposed tariffs, both governments remain in dialogue to modernize trade and investment pathways. Switzerland’s commitment to a “more attractive offer” in trade talks reflects confidence in maintaining a balanced and forward-looking partnership.



Financial Integration: The BFSA Advantage

The Bilateral Financial Services Agreement (BFSA) represents the next stage of US–Swiss collaboration in cross-border finance. It creates a deference-based recognition system for banking, insurance, and investment services, reducing duplication and enabling smoother transatlantic access.


Timeline and milestones:

  • September 2025: Supervisory cooperation MOU signed.

  • November 2025: Regulatory guidance issued.

  • Early 2026: BFSA enters into force following ratification.


Once live, the framework will:

  • Simplify licensing and notification processes for Swiss and US institutions.

  • Strengthen market access for insurers, asset managers, and intermediaries.

  • Create a sustainable, scalable model for cross-border risk management and compliance.


This marks a strategic leap from a high-trust relationship to a high-velocity transatlantic market.



Switzerland’s Domestic Drivers of Growth

1. Economic Outlook

The OECD projects 1.1% GDP growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and resilient domestic demand. Inflation remains within the 0–2% target range, and monetary policy continues to favor moderate stimulus—keeping Switzerland one of the world’s most predictable operating environments.


2. Fiscal and Tax Competitiveness

  • Corporate tax rates: 11.8–20.5% (average 12–15%).

  • OECD 15% global minimum implemented in 2024, with cantonal flexibility maintained.

  • Cantons still offer targeted R&D and IP incentives and innovation-friendly deductions.

This balanced tax regime continues to attract multinational headquarters, fintech scale-ups, and investors seeking efficiency with credibility.


3. AI and Digital Regulation

In February 2025, the Swiss Federal Council introduced a sector-specific AI framework, avoiding a one-size-fits-all law. This approach preserves agility for life sciences, medtech, and financial applications, aligning with EU standards but maintaining Swiss independence.

The strategy includes:

  • Integrating the Council of Europe’s AI Convention into Swiss law.

  • Establishing a potential Swiss Competence Center for Digital Health.

  • Promoting regulatory sandboxes for safe AI innovation.

In short: innovation without overregulation, a distinct Swiss advantage.



The Rise of Switzerland’s BPO & Digital Services Industry

By 2025, Switzerland’s BPO market will reach nearly USD 3 billion, growing at a 3.1% CAGR through 2030.


Growth is driven by:

  • AI and automation adoption across finance, HR, and legal sectors.

  • Multilingual talent (German, French, Italian, English) enabling seamless service delivery.

  • Rising SME outsourcing of non-core functions (bookkeeping, compliance, support).

With its reputation for data integrity and regulatory rigor, Switzerland is fast becoming Europe’s hub for high-value outsourcing in BFSI, healthcare, and public administration.



Liechtenstein + Switzerland: The Dual Gateway

Liechtenstein mirrors Swiss investment policy and enjoys EEA single-market access, forming a strategic twin entry point for European expansion. Together, the two economies provide unmatched benefits for international firms:

  • Swiss legal stability + Liechtenstein’s EU/EEA passporting.

  • Low taxes, multilingual labor, and world-class banking.



G&G Strategies Viewpoint

At G&G Strategies, we see 2025 as a pivotal year for cross-border collaboration between the United States and Switzerland. This corridor is evolving from a symbol of stability into a launchpad for precision-driven expansion, spanning finance, technology, and advanced services.

We support US and Swiss companies through:

  • Market-entry architecture – entity formation, licensing, governance, and compliance.

  • BFSA readiness – notifications, disclosure design, and advisor alignment.

  • Partnership and acquisition strategy – cross-border deal and JV facilitation.

  • AI and regulatory navigation – health tech, data privacy, and ethical AI frameworks.

  • Premium BPO solutions – compliance-driven outsourcing that scales with integrity.

Our mission is simple: turn trust into traction—helping visionary firms grow across the Atlantic with confidence.

Key Insight

The US–Swiss alliance remains one of the world’s most resilient economic partnerships. With synchronized regulatory modernization, digital innovation, and open dialogue, both nations are proving that precision and growth are not opposites, they’re partners.












Sources and References

  • HM Treasury & Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).The Berne Financial Services Agreement (BFSA): Framework for Mutual Recognition and Cross-Border Financial Cooperation Between the United Kingdom and Switzerland.HM Treasury and FCA Joint Statement, July 2025.

  • Pestalozzi Attorneys at Law.Berne Financial Services Agreement Between Switzerland and the United Kingdom – Legal Briefing Note.Pestalozzi Attorneys at Law Ltd., Zurich / Geneva, 2025.

  • Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).Implementation of the BFSA: Expression of Interest Procedures for UK and Swiss Firms.FCA Official Guidance, July–September 2025.

  • Reuters.“Swiss Life Shares Surge on 700% Trading Volume Increase.”Reuters Business & Finance, October 7, 2025.Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swiss-life-shares-surge-trading-volume-2025-10-07/

  • U.S. Department of State.2025 Investment Climate Statement: Switzerland and Liechtenstein.Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, July 2025.

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).OECD Economic Survey: Switzerland 2024.OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024.

  • Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA).Swiss Business Hub USA – Trade and Investment Promotion Resources.Swiss Confederation, 2025.

  • Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE).Investment and Market Entry Resources for Swiss Firms in the United States.Switzerland Global Enterprise, 2025.



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